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The current wave of protests in Iran reflects more than a cyclical episode of social unrest; it exposes deep structural vulnerabilities within the Islamic Republic that economic repression and coercive force alone can no longer fully contain.

At the structural level, Iran’s crisis is driven by a convergence of long-term economic decline, demographic pressure, and political stagnation. High inflation, currency devaluation, and chronic unemployment—especially among urban youth—have steadily eroded the regime’s social contract. Subsidies and welfare mechanisms that once mitigated public anger are increasingly unsustainable, limiting the state’s capacity to “buy” stability.