What Would a Nuclear Power Do If It Lost a Conventional War? The Russia–Ukraine Case

What Would a Nuclear Power Do If It Lost a Conventional War? The Russia–Ukraine Case

The war between Russia and Ukraine has revived one of the most dangerous questions in modern geopolitics: what happens when a nuclear power risks losing a conventional war against a non-nuclear state? For decades, nuclear strategy was built around the assumption that nuclear-armed states would rarely face existential military defeat. Nuclear weapons themselves were supposed … Read more

What Happens if Russia Wins the War in Ukraine?

What Happens if Russia Wins the War in Ukraine?

The war in Ukraine has become the most significant security crisis in Europe since World War II. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, the conflict has reshaped international politics, revived NATO’s strategic purpose, and forced Europe to reconsider its defense posture. While the outcome of the war remains uncertain, one scenario is … Read more

Plausible Scenarios for the End of the War in Ukraine: International Law Under Pressure

Plausible Scenarios for the End of the War in Ukraine: International Law Under Pressure

The war in Ukraine, launched by the Russian Federation in February 2022, represents the most serious challenge to the post–World War II international order in Europe. Beyond its devastating human and economic costs, the conflict is defined by a fundamental breach of international law, particularly the prohibition of aggressive war enshrined in the United Nations Charter.