Analysis

The Horn of Africa has become a critical arena for regional and global powers, with Somalia and Somaliland at the center of strategic competition. While Somalia struggles with decades of instability, militant activity, and weak governance, Somaliland has maintained relative peace and functioning institutions, despite its lack of international recognition. These contrasting realities shape how external powers, notably Turkey and Israel, pursue their interests in the region.

The current wave of protests in Iran reflects more than a cyclical episode of social unrest; it exposes deep structural vulnerabilities within the Islamic Republic that economic repression and coercive force alone can no longer fully contain.

At the structural level, Iran’s crisis is driven by a convergence of long-term economic decline, demographic pressure, and political stagnation. High inflation, currency devaluation, and chronic unemployment—especially among urban youth—have steadily eroded the regime’s social contract. Subsidies and welfare mechanisms that once mitigated public anger are increasingly unsustainable, limiting the state’s capacity to “buy” stability.